By 2035 China and India’s energy use is expected to double and the world’s energy consumption is expected to grow 53 percent, according to the International Energy Outlook 2011 (IEO2011).
The good news is that renewable energy will be the fastest-growing energy source over the same period. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate as carbon emissions will rise by 34 percent, renewable energy consumption will rise 2.8 percent per year and total energy use of the renewable share will increase from 10 percent in 2008 to 15 percent in 2035. This will still leave fossil fuel at 78 percent of the world’s energy use in 2035. The IEO2011 does however not incorporate prospective legislation or policies that should affect energy markets. China alone will account for 68 percent more energy than the U.S. by 2035, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rising from 30.2 billion metric tons in 2008 to 43.2 billion metric tons in 2035, and a global increase of 43 percent. Renewables will supply 15% of the world’s energy in 2035. The demand for natural gas is set to increase in demand, by 52 percent, with hydraulic fracking experiencing the highest increase. The IEO2011 projects the world’s energy use to increase from 505 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2008 to 619 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and 770 quadrillion Btu in 2035. World oil prices will remain at a high and according to EIA light sweet crude will reach $125 per barrel, in real 2009 dollars, in 2035. Petroleum and other liquids fuel will increase by 26.9 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2035 and conventional crude oil production is less than half this amount at 11.5 million barrels per day, while production of natural gas plant liquids increase by 5.1 million barrels per day. According to the IEO2011, “Comparisons of expected energy use in developed and developing nations reveal stark differences in growth over the next 25 years. Energy use in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will increase by 85%, while in OECD economies the growth will be 18%.”